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Abstract Geodetic strain rate characterizes present-day crustal deformation and therefore may be used as a spatial predictor for earthquakes. However, the reported correlation between strain rates and seismicity varies significantly in different places. Here, we systematically study the correlation between strain rate, seismicity, and seismic moment in six regions representing typical plate boundary zones, diffuse plate boundary regions, and continental interiors. We quantify the strain rate–seismicity correlation using a method similar to the Molchan error diagram and area skill scores. We find that the correlation between strain rate and seismicity varies with different tectonic settings that can be characterized by the mean strain rates. Strong correlations are found in typical plate boundary zones where strain rates are high and concentrated at major fault zones, whereas poor or no correlations are found in stable continental interiors with low strain rates. The correlation between strain rate and seismicity is also time dependent: It is stronger in seismically active periods but weaker during periods of relative quiescence. These temporal variations can be useful for hazard assessment. 

ABSTRACT Afterslip could help to reveal seismogenic fault structure. The 2020 Mw 6.3 Nima earthquake happened in a pull-apart basin within the Qiangtang block, central Tibetan plateau. Previous studies have explained the coseismic and early (<6 mo) postseismic deformation by rupture and afterslip on a normal fault bounding the western side of the basin. Here, we resolved the 19-month Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar-measured sequences of postseismic displacements that revealed a second postseismic displacement center ~12 km to the east of the main fault. Fitting the postseismic displacement requires afterslip on both the main fault and an antithetic fault that probably forms a y-shaped pair of conjugate faults in a negative flower structure. Stress-driven afterslip models suggest that the required afterslip on the antithetic fault could be triggered by coseismic rupture of the main fault or by a simultaneous rupture on the antithetic fault. The afterslip on both faults occurred mainly up-dip to the coseismic slip and has released moment ~15%–19% of that by the coseismic rupture. These results provide insights into active extension in the central Tibetan plateau and highlight the complex nature of fault rupture and afterslip. 

ABSTRACT Large earthquakes on strike-slip faults often rupture multiple fault segments by jumping over stepovers. Previous studies, based on field observations or numerical modeling with a homogeneous initial stress field, have suggested that stepovers more than ∼5  km wide would stop the propagation of rupture, but many exceptions have been observed in recent years. Here, we integrate a dynamic rupture model with a long-term fault stress model to explore the effects of background stress perturbation on rupture propagation across stepovers along strike-slip faults. Our long-term fault models simulate steady-state stress perturbation around stepovers. Considering such stress perturbation in dynamic rupture models leads to prediction of larger distance a dynamic rupture can jump over stepovers: over 15 km for a releasing stepover or 7 km for a restraining stepover, comparing with the 5 km limit in models with the same fault geometry and frictional property but assuming a homogeneous initial stress. The effect of steady-state stress perturbations is stronger in an overlapping stepover than in an underlapping stepover. The maximum jumping distance can reach 20 km in an overlapping releasing stepover with low-static frictional coefficients. These results are useful for estimating the maximum length of potential fault ruptures and assessing seismic hazard.